How long will it be before you run down to Walmart to pick up a new quantum computer?
Consider the timeline of the classic computer. In 1946, the first computer (ENIAC) occupied an 1,800 square foot room. In 1976, hobbyists could buy an Apple or Microsoft computer that fit comfortably on a desk. In 1987, Bill Gates became a 31-year-old billionaire.
So let's say from first computer to Bill Gates' billion, we have roughly 40 years. By that reckoning, the kids could have QCs in 2060. Maybe.
It would be hard to put a QC on the shelf at Walmart right now. For example, qubits do the calculations but they operate in temperatures about 100 times colder than outer space — about -400 centrigrade. The multiple cooling systems required for that make a lot of noise.
On the other hand, QCs can do amazing things. As Google recently demonstrated, in just 3.5 minutes, a QC can solve a math problem that would take a supercomputer 10,000 years to solve, according to Live Science.
It's tempting to wonder why anyone would want a computer so powerful. Maybe it could run Star Trek-like holograms or artificial intelligence, and solve vast scientific problems.
One thing is for sure, though — we find uses for our tools. In 1947, an American engineer said the world needed six computers. In 2021, there are 2 billion.