China wants people to say "I do," but an increasing number of Chinese are saying "we won't."
A record low 6.83 million Chinese people got married in 2022, down from 7.63 million in 2021 after peaking at about 13 million in 2013.
Why might Chinese folks be avoiding marriage? Many factors are likely at play, but China's youth unemployment rate weighs in at 20 percent, far above the roughly 7.5 percent in the USA. If nothing else, high youth unemployment could encourage people to get married later in life. The Chinese government has launched campaigns to encourage early marriage, but so far, it seems their calls are falling on deaf ears.
Crucially, the decline in marriages comes as China's fertility rate continues to plummet. China sees a birth rate of just 1.28, compared to about 1.6 in the United States. The replacement rate hovers around 2.1 children, and any rate below that could lead to a declining population. Some countries, like the United States, use immigration to keep the population steady, if not growing, but China so far has not signaled any intention to open its borders to permanent immigrants.
China's population has already started to shrink, falling by 850,000 in 2022 from a year prior. The UN reports that China's population may number 1.313 billion by 2050. Looking further ahead, the Brookings Institute projects that China's population could weigh in at just 800 million by 2100.
Shrinking populations are a concern because fewer people means fewer consumers. Many companies rely on ever-expanding demand. If revenues and profits fall because there are simply fewer consumers, companies may see their market cap decline and could have to lay off staff. If companies cut headcounts, it could constrain consumer demand even further. Overall, slacking demand could pose a risk for China and many other countries too. Parts of Europe, Japan, and South Korea, among others, are set to see populations contract.
