Automated vehicles (AVs) are poised to make the most dramatic changes in travel safety in history, but before widespread adoption there will be plenty of bumpy roads.
First, consider the benefits of AVs:
* No more impaired driving from sleepiness, drink or drugs. That should save more than 10,000 lives a year, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).
* No more speeding or reckless driving. AVs follow the rules.
* Better driving in low-visibility conditions like fog or darkness.
* Reduced congestion, better traffic flow. AVs that communicate with each other could optimize traffic flow and decrease collisions caused by stop-and-go traffic.
There also could be social benefits. People may not even need to own a car, especially in cities, and that might cut down on traffic and parking needs.
The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) estimates that AVs could reduce 90 percent of crashes.
In the next five years, traffic will be increasingly mixed between AVs and human drivers. In this transition period, experts expect challenges when unpredictable human behavior (intentional and unintentional) may challenge AV algorithms. In addition, humans could over-rely on partial automation, leading to accidents and challenges to public trust of AVs, which is critical for acceptance.
Finally, there will have to be major initiatives to upgrade roads, create smart infrastructure, and install vehicle-to-vehicle communication technologies.
